Home cooking

Gallup has some interesting results on last night's debate. The debate was a draw overall, 47 to 45 Kerry (compared to Gallup's 53-37 win for Kerry in the last contest). Partisans went along party lines. But interestingly enough, the poll had a higher sample of Republicans ("the sample of viewers had more Republicans (38%) than Democrats (32%) or independents (30%)"). Even more pertinent is the breakdown of independents: 53 to 37 Kerry, which by chance is exactly the same overall numbers for the last debate. This makes sense to me. I think Bush and Kerry were speaking to different constituents: Bush to the base after the debacle in Coral Springs, and Kerry to independent voters. In that sense, both effectively achieved their objectives. Remember, Kerry has a natural advantage on domestic issues among independents, so for the next all-domestic debate it could be a whitewash, if he won even this one by 10-15 points among swing voters.