The Polls, 1st ed.

Before we get into the electoral college map and the latest numbers, an analysis I hope to undertake later this week...Drudge is making a hoo-hah about Kerry's lousy favourability ratings -- at 36 percent in a recent poll, down 18 percent in the last six months and on a level with Martha Stewart and Joseph McCarthy (in 1954). Thing is, Drudge doesn't even point out the two most stunning things about the poll. One: Kerry's UNFAVOURABLE rating went up from 36 to 42 percent since the beginning of August, surely a product of the Swift Boat Veterans barrage and the RNC convention. As quoted in a Washington Times article on the poll: "Negative opinions about a candidate have a lot more weight than positive ratings," said Jeff Jones, Gallup managing editor. "Negative ratings are more firmly held and are harder to change." Time for the story arc to change. Two: Osama bin Laden had a favorability rating of 1 percent in 2001, likely taken after the WTC went down. I imagine it's just a statistical thing, but my god, who is that 1 percent, and can it have done anything but grown in the last three years?