And Then There Were Eleven

Speaking of "putting your money where your mouth is" as a concrete demonstration of belief, there is perhaps no better indicator of the campaigns' strategies than where they are concentrating their advertising dollars. The terrific Wisconsin Advertising Project has just released ad numbers from September 24-October 7. They indicate that up until the second presidential debate, at least, eleven states are still on the table: WI, CO, NV, FL, OH, MI, WI, WV, PA, NM, MN. Here are the overall top ad markets: 1. Miami, FL 2. Albuquerque, NM 3. Reno, NV 4. Tampa, FL 5. Green Bay, WI 6. Cleveland, OH 7. Toledo, OH 8. Columbus, OH 9. Grand Rapids, MI 10. Harrisburg, PA (No surprises here. Reno!) Bush-Cheney ads: 1. Miami, FL 2. Albuquerque, NM 3. Reno, NV 4. Grand Rapids, MI 5. Madison, WI 6. Green Bay, WI 7. Harrisburg, PA 8. Cleveland, OH 9. La Crosse, WI 10. Las Vegas, NV (Bushies are nervous about Nevada and see cracks in Pennsylvania and Michigan.) Kerry-Edwards ads: 1. Miami, FL 2. Albuquerque, NM 3. Tampa, FL 4. Columbus, OH 5. Toledo, OH 6. Cleveland, OH 7. Green Bay, WI 8. Reno, NV 9. Orlando, FL 10. Dayton, OH (Ohio is the key.) The top 50 for each candidate, and overall, available in PDF here; summary in PDF here. Few surprises, really. The big prizes: Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin, with a smattering of Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Nevada. Maine is off the table for Bush (Bangor does check in at #48 on his list), as is Washington (not in the top 50). Kerry appears to abandon New Hampshire (Manchester makes #48, and Mass. appears nowhere) and long shots like Arkansas. Some observations. West Virginia is still in play, if barely: Kerry has Charleston, WV on his list (#12), though probably also because its market overlaps with Ohio. In the upcoming period, look for more advertising in volatile Colorado, which barely registers overall compared to the heavy hitters (Denver 21st overall), and watch trends in Michigan -- should be a lean-Kerry state, but both campaigns continue to pour the money in. And Reno looks like a hotbed of this election: #3 overall. To think, I could be part of the action by next week. Bottom line, if you're not in the top 11, you're basically being completely ignored. Source: NIELSEN MONITOR-PLUS AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ADVERTISING PROJECT. Because they asked politely.