Washoe and beyond

The inside buzz has us up in early polling around the state, and both our and the Republican internal polls have Kerry up by a couple of points -- and that was before Friday's rally. But this will still be a close one, possibly decided by a few hundred votes. The 5 EVs will come down to the ground game. Last time out Bush beat Gore by 20,000 votes statewide, a result attributed in no small part to the lack of energetic get out the vote efforts by the Democrats. No longer. Media shots, and casual observation, of the Washoe Country Republican office show an empty facility. Our office is buzzing. We've got hundreds of volunteers who come down from California on the weekend and who will be helping out on election day. Among those volunteers are lawyers who have volunteered to observe polling stations during the early voting and on election day. There has been national news made of the potential challenges to individuals identified as Democrats voting in Nevada. It's still unclear what merits these challenges have, but the Nevada election authorities seem pretty intent on allowing everyone to vote. There was concern a few weeks ago about a Republican firm registering voters and subsequently shredding the registration forms. My understanding is that a court ruled those people who believe their registrations were shredded can have their petitions to vote considered on an individual basis. Hopefully that won't be a major issue as we approach the election. We have word from on high that the Democrats do indeed have 10,000 lawyers at the ready, including 50 of the best lawyers in the country staying at the Chicago Airport Hilton on election day with four Learjets ready to take them wherever they're needed. Terry McAuliffe promised that he wouldn't roll over and die like the Gore people did last time. My prediction is that Kerry will win the state by a nose, but it is truly a toss-up. Our ground game is dominant, the demographic trends look good, and the close polls don't reflect all the newly registered voters. In a state where the margin of victory will be in all likelihood under 10,000, these are important factors. In the larger scheme of this election, Nevada is not as key as Ohio and Florida. But it would be welcome to either candidate should things go poorly in the three big swings and the Midwest. And in a very close overall electoral vote scenario, it could be the difference between victory and defeat.