Saturday, November 27, 2004

Meanwhile, in Baghdad...

If you think the crisis in Ukraine looks bad, take a closer look at what's going on in Iraq.

Some of Iraq's most powerful political groups, including the party led by the interim prime minister, called Friday for a six-month delay in elections, now scheduled for Jan. 30, citing concerns over security. The list of groups seeking the delay includes some that have been among the strongest backers of the U.S. policy in Iraq, and their call indicates sudden momentum for those arguing for a delay. The two main Kurdish parties supported the delay request, marking the first time the Kurds, closely allied with the Americans, have taken a clear stand on the issue... The Iraqi government itself did not join in a petition to the electoral commission seeking a delay, and the party of Prime Minister Ayad Allawi gave oral assent rather than a signature to the document, which was signed by at least 15 groups and dozens of individual political and religious figures after an impassioned two-hour meeting at the Baghdad home of Adnan Pachachi, a prominent Sunni politician.

So even though the Kurds are asking for a delay in the midst of continued violence around the country, Allawi's people have privately agreed the election must be postponed, and violence flares in Ramadi and Mosul, the Bush administration continues to insist that the election will go forward. The real issue here is that either way, the terrorists win. If the elections go forward in January, the Sunnis, who dominate the areas plagued by violence, will rightfully claim disenfranchisement and denounce the results of the election. If the elections are postponed, the insurgents will claim their victory over a long-held American promise, and may even accuse Allawi of postponing the election in order to illegitimately preserve his own American-backed regime. Moreover, a messy election could split the Sunnis and Shiites and effectively tear the country apart. I realize the crisis in the Ukraine is far from over, but this is shaping up to be an even greater disaster.

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