Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Fuzzy Electoral Math No More?

Will the Bush II elections be most remembered in history as the final curtain call of the Electoral College? I think it possible, although I have no idea how the U.S. amends its constitution. One person, one vote. A true national campaign, with Democrats in Kansas and Republicans in California. No slim victory in one large state (where a brother of a candidate happens to be Governor) holds the election in the balance. And, critically, the change doesn't necessarily favour either major party. The New York Times had a blistering editorial in favour of its abolishment at the start of the Republican Convention, due mainly to the profound insignificance of the undecided New Yorker, and it is difficult to argue the logic. That said, I have seen signs of the 269-269 tie before - what a legacy that would be for W: put in by the Supreme Court and THEN by the Republican Congress four years later?! Tim Russert better get his white board ready for November 2nd. Then there are other aspects to consider as well. Don't know if you caught this news last week, but can you imagine the constitutional crisis if electors actually start looking at the black-letter rights granted by the constitution? Chaos that would make 2000 look trivial and lead to more constitutional cases at the Supreme Court between Harvard and Yale. I think it will sort itself out by election day, but certainly fine fodder for blogger speculation. Until the debates, I will go with Diefenbaker, who famously said that "polls are for the dogs." Sadly, this is mostly due to the fact that they do not contain much good news for Kerry at the moment (and didn't for the Chief at the time). Patience. And now we are in the homestretch, so the "Kerry desire" thesis once again.

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