Tuesday, September 28, 2004

What's good for the goose...

I never thought I'd write this, but perhaps Kerry can be the "weak but in touch with regular folks" candidate. The KE campaign didn't take long to figure out that rising oil prices are potentially a monster Achilles heel for Bush. The potential winner here is making the connection to the White House's Mideast policy and Iraq (setting aside long-term energy policy, which doesn't seem to ever gain traction as a winning platform). John Edwards is making that connection: "One central reason for these high prices is this Administration's mismanagement of Iraq and the sabotage of Iraqi oil pipelines. Meanwhile, as your gas prices go up, the oil companies profits go up." The winning strategy for Kerry here might be 1992 redux: paint President Bush as out of touch with the concerns of the voting public. You'll never see another president bemused by a checkout counter scanner as George HW famously was back then, but the present state of the economy and a rising death toll in Iraq at least give Kerry a leg to stand on in the upcoming debates. He'll never feel your pain like Clinton, but if Kerry can make a clear, concise case in the debates about how it is Bush's policies that have mucked up undecided voters' lives, that will be sufficient. Hammer it home. Commercials with video of Bush's appalling statement that America's enemies in Iraq could "bring it on" and him searching mockingly for WMDs under furniture in the White House (at the Correspondents' Dinner), then with a commentator asking rhetorically if that is the sort of leadership Americans expect of their president. Then the barrage on gas prices. Bush talking about how the economy is improving, with some stats to show it hasn't. (This has already been done in one ad.) At least soften the undecideds up to the idea that he is not in touch. Then Kerry takes the opportunity in the debates to seem like a normal guy. The debates, in many ways, will decide the final bend in the arc, and their importance cannot be overstated. I think Kerry is starting to sense he must be in better touch with the average voter, beginning with the appearances on Regis and Letterman last week. He must keep in mind: what was good for cooking HW's goose 12 years ago might be good for the gander this time around.

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