For Every Cloud...

And welcome back, old friend. It was starting to get lonely around this message board, and I wondered if you hadn't gone for broke and lost everything on the poker tables in a post-election funk. Glad to hear you are back in Canada and I look forward to arriving in Toronto myself on the evening of December 5th for the full debriefing. In the meantime, back to political news and what to say in the aftermath of Bush's big win. I took a few days off in an attempt to stay away from over-analysis of the defeat and pointless moping about the future course of events. Ultimately, my search for silver linings has yielded two main points gleaned from the British press: (1) America's choice may have painted Blair into a corner, forcing him to make a "one-or-the-other" decision about Britain's long-term future that he cannot easily escape. Does this lie within the transatlantic alliance forged in the fire of Iraq, or instead with the United Kingdom as the critical 3rd spoke in the wheelhouse of much-maligned "Old" Europe? Given the great disdain that British voters hold for Bush, how long can Labour continue to walk the fine line between the two? Europe is at a true crossroads these days and Bush's election may just have provided the necessary tipping point. Witness the truly bizarre reaction of Michael Howard, the British Tory Leader, in refusing to even congratulate the re-elected President! See this Guardian piece by Jackie Ashley for the full analysis, well captured in this quote buried 3/4 of the way down: "Despair about Bush could lead to a revival of Europeanism and make it easier for Labour and Lib Dem politicians to win referendums, both on the constitution and perhaps even on the euro." An interesting thought, and some optimism for those looking to a united Europe to offset American hegemony down the road. Remember that conversation about the future of Europe in Papa's Pub, of Port Hawksbury fame? (2) On the American domestic front, I also have to admit doubts about the ability of Kerry to govern effectively. Never my choice or a particularly strong candidate for the Presidency, he would have had an especially difficult job in handling the mess created by Bush. Now Bush can truly be said to "own" his legacy. It is going to be difficult to blame a falling dollar, growing trade deficit, rising price of oil, lukewarm job growth (etc...) all on the "recession" that was "inherited" from Clinton in 2000. Republicans could have exploited these difficulties in the 2006 midterms (the truth never posing a barrier) and the Democrats would likely have a difficult time re-electing Kerry in 2008, ushering in a true era of Republican dominance that Rove claims to seek. And imagine the fallout of a terrorist attack on a Democratic President's watch. The proper historical parallel might be a British one, best synthesized in the Times (British version, not NY) by Anatole Kaletsky. According to this perspective, Kerry plays Neil Kinnock to a future Democratic Tony Blair: "The electorate’s decision to let Mr Bush clear up his own messes does not just threaten the incumbent with poetic justice; more importantly it offers a reprieve from a potential death sentence on the Democrats." Analogies - I know, I know, imperfect - but it is a cogent and forceful argument with great merit. As instapundit always says, read the whole thing. SO - thoughts of this sort certainly make the grieving process easier. The truth is, Bush's electoral victory was helped immensely by his very incompetence. It trapped Kerry in a box - Iraq was in such a botched state that staying the course was the only real option, and the massive budget deficits made new and innovative economic/social proposals that much more difficult. But all that said, I am not American and Bush is not my country's leader. I do feel great empathy for the 48% of those who voted against, and for the tireless efforts and enthusiasm of the left-wing blogosphere, the inspired Deaniacs I met in New Hampshire in January 2004, a guy from Boston who toured the UN in Geneva with me this September, your compatriots in Nevada, and all the rest. It will be a long four years ahead...