A Hopeful Guess

RealClearPolitics has a roundup of the pundits Electoral College predictions here. I suppose now is as good a time as any to throw my thoughts out there as well, while at the same time confessing that the electoral projection motto of danieldrezner.com is spot on: "I don't know who's going to win -- and you don't know either." On that note, let's get to this apparatchik's two cents. Using the RealClearPolitics battleground states framework for convenience, I award Kerry his 10 solid states first [CA, CT, DE, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, DC] for the total of 149. I cannot see him losing any of his 6 leaning states either [HI, ME, MI, NJ, OR, WA], pushing him up to 207. As for Bush, give him his 22 solid states [AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NC, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WY] for a total of 191. The President's leaning states present a more interesting mix, as the night’s surprise could easily be in Arkansas, Colorado, or even Nevada. For the sake of some fun, and in hopes of an extra riotous celebration for the co-author of this blog, I am going to go ahead throw Nevada’s 5 EVs down on Kerry’s side of the ledger to be different. So, as we shift the focus to the 8 toss-up states remaining, the score stands at 212 for Kerry and 222 for the President. Give New Mexico to Bush and New Hampshire to Kerry and the score moves up to 216 v. 227. Pennsylvania will go blue, as will Minnesota, upping the challenger's total by 31 to 247. How does Kerry get to 270 from here - because let’s face it, in a race this close everyone except Tucker Carlson wants to predict a win for their favored candidate (did Stewart soften him up after all?). Slate's scorecard has the cogent answer, that it must be either through the Midwest or with Florida. My scepticism gives the Bush Brothers Florida, but this time it won't be enough. Ohio falls to the Democrats, as do both Wisconsin and Iowa, and Kerry becomes the 44th President in January with 284 Electoral votes, the curse of the Redskins continues to haunt the incumbent, and still no Republican can hope to win the White House without Ohio. I hope.